EW’s awards experts David Canfield and Joey Nolfi have spent the past few months tracking the Oscar race.
THE SNUBS
DAVID CANFIELD:Joey!
Let’s get into this mess.
Jennifer Lopez has now been snubbed.
I think we both agree this is wrong.
JOEY NOLFI:Way to clock the doubt for my queen!
I’m devastated, and let it be known: I stan Jenny now and forever.
DAVID:I do.
If not for that timing, though, who knows it too may have underperformed.
IS TIMING EVERYTHING?
(Another moment of silence for Jennifer Aniston/Cake.)
LikeHustlersandThe Farewell,Rocketmanhit before fall.
In this condensed, extra intense awards season, did earlier theatrical runs prove fatal?
(How else to explain Kathy Bates?!)
JOEY:I’m also not sure that timing is an issue anymore.
The problem withRocketmanis… it’s just not a very good movie.
The only explanation for Kathy Bates is her dedication to a campaign.
She worked the circuit and it paid off.
We can’t fault her for that.
Who can blame her?
It’s legendary in its own right (but not better than Lopez’s performance).
JOEY:I agree re: Hauser and good ol' Dick Jewell’s box office floppage.
It’s not about the performance and, at the end of the day, never really is.
WHAT WILL WIN BEST PICTURE?
Do we have another split year on our hands?
And Tarantino doesn’t have the heat for Best Director, anyway.
Sam Mendes is the strongest bet there.
And 11 nominations forJoker?
It’d be foolish to rule it out for either of these at this point.
JOEY:In the chaos of this morning I completely missed thatOnce Upon a Timeis sitting Best Editing out.
DAVID:Quite right.
I knew it was an industry favorite (Cate Blanchett stanning during her Golden Globes appearance!)
Even a revisionist tale like Tarantino’s?
They’re the overwhelming SAG frontrunners.
Is there any hope for a little chaos among the actors…. anywhere?
The acting categories are all locked, I think.
Right now, to me, it’s looking likeThe Irishmanis going to walk away completely empty-handed.
What a fall from grace!
The race works in strange ways.
DAVID:TheLittle Womendisrespect!
But yes,Irishman: No De Niro in Best Actor, either.
But so it goes with the Oscars!
Who knows, maybe Kathy Bates will take the whole thing and show us all!
WISH LISTS
DAVID:To wrap, Joey: Biggest hope for Oscar night?
Even if it’s totally unlikely?
I was so moved!
What’s your dream scenario for Oscars night?
DAVID:I could go Greta or Florence or Saoirse I love this movie, sorry!
