December is the time for Oscar whiplash.
Here is EWs Prize Fighter analysis of whats connecting with voters right now in the big races.
1 choice by voters.
Credit: Anne Marie Fox
If your film has lots of No.
3 votes, but very few ballots ranking it at the top …
Sorry, that means youre out.
Jessica Miglio
A dartboard and some voodoo may also be involved.
That gets dull for voters.
August: Osage Countyis another conundrum.
Francois Duhamel
A Best Picture win by the National Board of Review gave it a healthy boost.
WhileHeris not one of those pre-nominated films, it could surprise voters who give it a shot.
Directors love seeing that kind of vision brought to life.
Lewis Jacobs/NBC
Alfonso Cuaron,Gravity
2.
Steve McQueen,12 Years a Slave
3.
Martin Scorsese,The Wolf of Wall Street
4.
David O. Russell,American Hustle
5.
Spike Jonze,Her
6.
Joel and Ethan Coen,Inside Llewyn Davis
7.
Alexander Payne,Nebraska
8.
Its too soon to know which will make the cut.
Cate Blanchett,Blue Jasmine
2.
Emma Thompson,Saving Mr. Banks
3.
Sandra Bullock,Gravity
4.
Meryl Streep,August: Osage County
5.
Amy Adams,American Hustle
6.
Judi Dench,Philomena
7.
Kate Winslet,Labor Day
8.
This week, the one thing Ive heard over and over again is, Leo is a lock.
The field is full of such strong contenders that there is no single frontrunner.
Chiwetel Ejiofor has been the slight favorite for his stoic resilience in12 Years a Slave.
The big question is who falls off?
The ones facing the biggest risk are Robert Redford for his largely silent, solo turn inAll Is Lost.
He has been absent from the campaign scene, which has created a sense of aloofness.
I wouldnt count him out.
It could easily be Hanks who is snubbed instead.
The Screen Actors Guild nominations will clarify a lot.
Chiwetel Ejiofor,12 Years a Slave
2.
Leonardo DiCaprio,The Wolf of Wall Street
3.
Bruce Dern,Nebraska
4.
Christian Bale,American Hustle
5.
Tom Hanks,Captain Phillips
6.
Matthew McConaughey,Dallas Buyers Club
7.
Robert Redford,All Is Lost
8.
(Ask Tom Hanks.)
Or will her previous win actually work against the 23-year-old when voters actually begin to mull it over.
Jennifer Lawrence,American Hustle
2.
Lupita Nyongo,12 Years a Slave
3.
June Squibb,Nebraska
4.
Oprah Winfrey,The Butler
5.
Margo Martindale,August: Osage County
6.
Octavia Spencer,Fruitvale Station
7.
Julia Roberts,August: Osage County
8.
There are other worthy contenders, but each will have formidable work to do to overcome Letos lead.
In many ways, that has made this one of the most fluid categories.
Saturday Night LiveandMacGruberstar Will Forte may be the surprise player here.
Hes not there yet, but over the next few weeks Forte could find himself rising onto the list.
Jared Leto,Dallas Buyers Club
2.
Michael Fassbender,12 Years a Slave
3.
James Gandolfini,Enough Said
4.
Tom Hanks,Saving Mr. Banks
5.
Barkhad Abdi,Captain Phillips
6.
Jonah Hill,The Wolf of Wall Street
7.
Bradley Cooper,American Hustle
8.
