After that its pretty much a field day of shot-in-the-dark prognostication.
Well see how wrong I am in just a matter of months!
True GritFour of the 14 Gurus have the Coen brothers upcoming Western ranked first or second on their ballots.
And no, none of us have actually seen it.
This one is pure hunch on my part.
Though strong trailers dont always turn into great movies (Im looking at you,Invictus.)
The Social NetworkThe Facebook movie boasts the second-highest tally of No.
1 votes (behindThe Kings Speech).
After this weeks fantastic hold at the box office, its even more of a sure thing.
Heres hoping its not anotherSpanglish.
Toy Story 3Expect a lot ofLord of the Ringscomparisons in the coming weeks.
That trilogy did end up picking up a Best Picture trophy, but it was live-action.
127 HoursHeres where the predictions start getting a little less sure-footed.
Danny Boyles follow-up to Slumdog Millionaire impressed critics and audiences at Telluride and Toronto.
But is the film too claustrophobic to go the distance?
HereafterI totally fell for Clint Eastwoods afterlife drama when I saw it at the Toronto film festival.
Many critics are not fans.
But I still feel like Eastwoods ambitious work could be up the Academys alley.
And its perhaps the sexiest movie Ive seen in years.
All arguments are encouraged.
And dont forget to follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for ongoing Oscar updates.
