Every new TV show is a gamble.
Thats especially true in the crowded fall season, when the networks roll out an array of new shows.
There are ways to mitigate the risk, of course.
Credit: Image Credit: Mitchell Haaseth/NBC
You cast a recognizable actor.
You work with a successful producer look, theres Ryan Murphy doing his Ryan Murphy thing withThe New Normal!
And even in the modern era of DVR and downloading, a good timeslot is still essential.
Lewis Jacobs/NBC
A solid concept also helps especially if youre a procedural on CBS, or a female-skewing soap on ABC.
Risk is hardly abadthing.
AndGleewas a prime-time musical, a genre that was widely considered ratings kryptonite.
Notice how nobody ever mentionsCop Rockanymore?
(Just for fun, we ran a retroactive Risk Factor on those previous risks-turned-megahit shows.
Clickhereto check it out.)
(Click here for an expanded explanation of our terms.)
Check out how each new show rates on our scale, below!
The series is also nothing like its timeslot companions, realistic family shows that employ absurd humor judiciously.
The Stars:5
There isnt a single marquee name inThe Neighbors ensemble, unless you count 80s ingenue Jami Gertz.
Gertzs costar Simon Templeman is best known as a voice actor for video games.
In the world of TV, though, hes untested:The Neighborsis his first series.
At least The CWsArrowis aiming for an entirely different demographic.
We say: The workplace comedy formula has always served NBC well in the past.
Justin Kirk spent the last several years of his career lighting up with the Botwins onWeeds.
Crystal the Monkey, meanwhile, is sort of a big deal.
But she has no lines.
The Team: 4
This is the first major outing for creators Brian Gatewood and Alessandro Tanaka.
The real heavyweights in this corner?
Leading the 8 p.m. hour, this comedy finds itself up against the start of ABCs family comedy block.
We say:Ben and Kateare brother and sister.
Ben acts like hes five, and Kate is a single mom with a five-year-old.
Theres not much else to it.
(His history of work in animation voice work wont help with facial recognition either.)
The Team: 5
Speaking of the folks behind the scenes: Dana Fox, who?
And could pay off… We say: The show feels like a renegade CBS sitcom that wound up on the NBC schedule.
It doesnt have much in common with the networks acclaimed Thursday sitcoms.
Still, none of them have headlined a sitcom before.
Rough.Guysairs opposite the still-vibrant guy-centricSurvivor, not to mention the glitteringly rebootedX-Factorand the buzzyArrow.
It also makes a strange fit between the more farcicalAnimal Practiceand the grittyLaw & Order: SVU.
Meanwhile, her leading man, Jay Ryan, is a relative newcomer.
(Does anyone remember hearing the names Chace Crawford and Ed Westwick before 2007?)
NEXT PAGE:Last ResortandEmily Owens, M.D.
We say: Gotta give points for originality: This aint another cop show.
Then again, with a concept this eccentric and this ambitious, its unlikely thatLast Resortwould fit in onanynetwork.
The question is: Will the audience reaction be Wow!
(Ken Tucker, as youll see below from his low risk rating, liked the pilot.)
But his last two efforts TerriersandThe Chicago Code failed to attract enough viewers for cable or broadcast, respectively.
Theres no denying it:Last Resortis heading straight into the trenches.
Thursday at 8 has long been a make-or-break murder slot for new shows.
Kens Risk Rating: 2
Emily Owens, M.D.
The Stars:2
Mamie Gummer isnt just a dead ringer for Meryl Streep shes the oft-awarded actresss daughter.
Theyre solid, recognizable faces, if not exactly big-name stars.
We say: You cant argue with brevity.
Mob Doctorwas co-created by Josh Berman and Rob Wright, a pair of journeyman TV writers.
Berman createdDrop Dead Diva, a solid cable performer that Wright joined in the third season.
Theres a sense thatMob Doctoris their call up to the big leagues.
Based on the book by Gabriella Pierce.
We say:666feels like a Frankenstein-esque attempt to create the ultimate ABC show.
Its a female-focused nighttime soap with a hip, urban setting.
Its serialized, but not to an extent that seems likely to get confusing.
All its missing are doctors with sexy problems!
Odds are, if you like anything on ABC, youll probably check out666.
The question is whether youll stay for the not-terribly-original haunted-house concept.
Terry OQuinn and Vanessa Williams were key supporting players on ABCsLostandUgly Betty.
Bringing them together as a scheming husband-and-wife feels like a match made in heaven.
Creator David Wilcox worked on the shortlivedLife on Marsremake, and seasons 2 and 3 ofFringe.
Showrunner Matt Miller was an executive producer onChuckand took over the second season of the lateHuman Target.
Lets hope666is the crossover moment.
Even better: At 10, oppositeThe Mentalistand football, it should have the female audience all to itself.
There are no huge names in this procedural.
Lead actress Janet Montgomery is best known for her recurring role onEntourage.
While the individual cast members dont have strong fan bases, fans of procedurals in general may show up.
In fact,Law and Order: SVUalum Stephanie March is in the courtroom again here.
While all those shows have their fans,Grimm as a procedural will be especially difficult forMade in Jersey.
But the aforementioned older viewers do bump its prospects up a bit.
But Espositos hardly a household name.
And hes shirtless in theArrowpilot.
Exec producers Greg Berlanti and Marc Guggenheim cowrote theGreen Lanternmovie, but dont hold that against them.
The pilot is directed by David Nutter, who also helped launchDark Angel,Smallville, andSupernatural.
Wednesday at 8, leading into the seasonedSupernatural, should setbothshows up nicely.
A hilarious new comedy about new beginnings that will make your heart sing.
We say: ItsReba2.0!
The older audience who has madeRebaa syndication success is a safe bet for another hokey traditional sitcom.
Malibu Countryis being executive produced by Reba McEntire and Kevin Abbott.
Abbott was an executive producer of ABCsLast Man Standing.
At 8:30, itll be going up againstCSI: NYon CBS,Communityon NBC, andKitchen Nightmareson FOX.
To its benefit, none of these shows are likeMalibu County.
How they handle the load will be telling.
And formerPrison BreakEP Matt Olmstead is set to act as showrunner.
While ABCsModern Familyhas Cam, Mitchell, and Lily, theyre part of a larger ensemble.
Here, the gay couple is the center of the show.
And after all, NBC is the old home ofWill & Grace.
Murphy (doing moreGleeandPopularthanAmerican Horror StoryandNip/Tuck) co-created the show with Ali Adler.
Write what you know.
Indeed, premiering right before2 Broke Girls, this show should have no problem finding an audience.
It will, however, also need to find the laughs.
The standard sitcom complete with laugh track seems poised to possibly repeat2 Broke Girls2011 success.
The show will go up againstThe Voiceon NBC,Dancing with the Starson ABC, andBoneson Fox.
Sure, but also exactly on point with the heartstring-plucking comedy trend that seems popular as of late.
The Stars: 1
Did someone sayMatthew Perry?!
Perry reunites withFriendswriter-turned-show-creator Scott Silveri for this role.
The question: Do twoFriendsmake a right?
What could hinder it?
The fact that it will air opposite demo heavyweightNew Girland hip cult comedyHappy Endings.
American audiences know Miller, but not well enough that hes without mystery, which is fitting.
ButNashvilleis a true sudser, which ABC viewers should appreciate.
EP R.J. Cutler is a noted documentarian (The September Issue,The War Room).
And that music includes original tunes that are performed by the actors.
Wednesday at 10 puts it up againstCSIand the fellow newbieChicago Fire.
Look forNashvilleto climb the ratings chart.
We say:Vegasis not a straight-up CBS procedural its a bona fide period piece.
The big name is co-creator Nicholas Pileggi the writer ofGoodfellasandCasino.
This is Pileggis first attempt at a TV show sinceMichael Hayes, the shortlived 1997 David Caruso vehicle.
Co-creator and showrunner Greg Walker might be the real name to watch here.
WithNCISandNCIS: Los Angelesas lead-ins, crime fans will already be tuned into CBS by 10.
(And Other Concerns).
