The thorny issues at stake?
New media (of course), DVD residuals, and SAGs volatile relationship with AFTRA.
Were going to go out on a limb and say its not going to be pretty.
If you do get a sharp split, then you may see a less-than-overwhelming ratification.
I would think, given the details that are emerging, that this contract will get ratified.
I think that there will be some permanent loss of audience, just as
there was in 88.
Sort of unsolicited
think that pilot season will be a reduced phenomenon for a number of
years.
You do have to wonder whether theyll be backsliding and people
will start spending money like its water again.
And the upfronts will change similarly.
I think there
will definitely be fewer housekeeping and overall deals.
Theyre not
going to restore everyone onforce majeureby a long shot.
I think people are scared and resentful.
The interesting question is: To what extent are writers going to
start to engage the Internet more assertively?
Are writers becoming
informal directors because theyre picking up cameras and doing YouTube
videos?
Thats got to be transformative for some of them.
Do you think the approachingOscarswas a big
force in getting both sides to the table last weekend?
The writers really struck a strategic blow with the
Globes.
I mean, they turned the Globes into a cut-rate press
conference.
But we
still have the SAG negotiations to look forward to.
Traditionally, SAG
and AFTRA have been partners and negotiated their contract with the
AMPTP together.
But theres been a lot of infighting within SAGs East
and West coasts and with AFTRA, right?
Right the East is really more aligned with AFTRA.
In fact,
reportedly everywhere except the Hollywood branch is more aligned with
AFTRA.
[AFTRA is] more moderate.
SAG has aggressive leadership, with national executive director Doug
Allen and those guys.
And [national president Alan] Rosenberg.
And that was maybe [about]
three years ago.
There was really this rumbling, and now you see that
bearing fruit in the whole SAG-AFTRA dispute.
So
this story is not going to end with the settling of the Writers Guild
strike.
SAG actually wanted to negotiate on its own, is that right?
And to one-up SAG, in a sense, AFTRA said it will go into negotiations
early.
It undercuts SAGs leverage,
particularly if AFTRA tries to gain more assertive jurisdiction.
So
were not out of the woods.
This has got to be the bumpiest negotiating
cycle for Hollywood labor in several decades.
Who has control over what?
Historically, AFTRA had jurisdiction over taped shows, and SAG over
film.
But as
this stuff gets shot on HD… you get AFTRA trying to push for
additional SAG jurisdiction.
If a movie is shot on HD, is AFTRA going
to push for jurisdiction?
And thats going to be
AFTRA.
How will this affect motion pictures?
What other issues are there?
SAG has said they dont
consider it off the table for themselves.
Jurisdiction over reality and animation TV has been a conflict, too.
Who ultimately has say in the matter?
There are two ways you get jurisdiction over a particular show: One is
on a show-by-show basis.
For example, most Fox primetime animation
actually is covered by the Writers Guild.
It was a complete
non-starter from day one.
Visit Handels blog atdigitalmedialaw.blogspot.com.
The interesting question is: To what extent are writers going tostart to engage the Internet more assertively?
Are writers becominginformal directors because theyre picking up cameras and doing YouTubevideos?
Thats got to be transformative for some of them.
Do you think the approachingOscarswas a bigforce in getting both sides to the table last weekend?Absolutely.
The writers really struck a strategic blow with theGlobes.
I mean, they turned the Globes into a cut-rate pressconference.
But westill have the SAG negotiations to look forward to.
Traditionally, SAGand AFTRA have been partners and negotiated their contract with theAMPTP together.
In fact,reportedly everywhere except the Hollywood branch is more aligned withAFTRA.
[AFTRA is] more moderate.
SAG has aggressive leadership, with national executive director DougAllen and those guys.And [national president Alan] Rosenberg.
And that was maybe [about]three years ago.
There was really this rumbling, and now you see thatbearing fruit in the whole SAG-AFTRA dispute.
Sothis story is not going to end with the settling of the Writers Guildstrike.
SAG actually wanted to negotiate on its own, is that right?Thats exactly right.
SAG didnt want to be draggedinto a more moderate position by having 50 percent of the negotiatingcommittee be AFTRA.
It undercuts SAGs leverage,particularly if AFTRA tries to gain more assertive jurisdiction.
Sowere not out of the woods.
This has got to be the bumpiest negotiatingcycle for Hollywood labor in several decades.
Who has control over what?Historically, AFTRA had jurisdiction over taped shows, and SAG overfilm.
What that meant was taped shows in addition to late-night andstuff like that would be half-hour, multi-camera comedies.
But asthis stuff gets shot on HD… you get AFTRA trying to push foradditional SAG jurisdiction.
If a movie is shot on HD, is AFTRA goingto push for jurisdiction?
And thats going to beAFTRA.
SAG has said they dontconsider it off the table for themselves.
For example, most Fox primetime animationactually is covered by the Writers Guild.
It was a completenon-starter from day one.
